Published in Libération, 3 Novembre 2009.English translation: Catherine Gabel (Gabel Rejder Associés)
The French population is fighting shy of vaccination. But H1N1 influenza, commonly known as swine flu, is not just a bout of seasonal flu: it kills principally children and youth, including some very healthy individuals, and the outbreak poses a risk of overcrowding in hospitals next winter. In this respect, the signature features certainly point to pandemic influenza.
Proof is provided by studies recently published in scientific journals such as The New England Journal of Medicine and JAMA. Contrary to statistics for seasonal flu, more than 90% of patients with H1N1 infection admitted to intensive care units in Australia and New Zealand during the winter were under 65. Over one-third of these individuals were in perfectly good health, with no risk factors. The remainder suffered from diabetes, obesity, cardiac or respiratory diseases (particularly asthma) or were pregnant women (9%). During that southern hemisphere winter, admissions for viral pneumonia were fifteen times higher than in previous winters.
A further study, conducted in Canadian hospitals, revealed that the average age of admissions in intensive care was only 32. Some 30% were children and 17% died. Treatment capacity during the epidemic peak in June 2009 almost reached saturation point in several hospitals.
Drawing too hasty conclusions on the new type of influenza implies being completely in the dark on the complexities of flu viruses. All the specialists know, from previous pandemics, that the initial wave is often less severe than subsequent waves; and there is no way of forecasting how the new virus will evolve. The risk that H1N1 may combine with other influenza viruses of animal origin cannot be ruled out.
Considering swine flu as ‘just a bout of seasonal flu’ provides fertile ground for electronic rumours to spread. By mingling fact and fiction, they sabotage the vaccination strategies implemented to mitigate the pandemic’s severity: people say anything and everything about the composition of the vaccines, the manufacturers who produce them and their evaluation processes. The word ‘adjuvant’ itself has become a magic word, crystallising the current vaccination fantasies.
These rumours, which stem from rampant obscurantism, are as groundless as thinking that this is just a bout of seasonal flu. And spreading them seriously damages public health.
