This article is an abstract of an article of this blog entitled "La sévérité de la pandémie au virus A/H1N1 au coeur des incertitudes".
“Influenza viruses are the ultimate moving target. Their behavior is notoriously unpredictable. The behavior of pandemics is as unpredictable as the viruses that causes them", stressed Margaret Chan last May in her address at the 62nd World Health Organization (WHO) World Health Assembly- the WHO's supreme decision making body (1). Articles recently published in the scientific literature have shed light on several reasons why the evolution of the new A/H1N1 influenza virus is feared. (2,3,4,5). They also have drawn attention to the fact that despite the fact that the disease severity has been mild in industrialized countries, severe cases may occur with a higher incidence in vulnerable populations. Those with malnutrition, chronic infections such as HIV and other comorbidities may be particularly vulnerable (2). Authors of a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine stress the need for strengthened worldwide influenza surveillance both in humans and in animals (5).
(1) Address on 18 May 2009 in Geneva, Switzerland of the 62nd World Health Assembly- the WHO's supreme decision making body(2) Human infection with new influenza A (H1N1) virus: clinical observations from Mexico and other affected countries, May 2009. Wkly Epidemiol Rec 2009 May 22;84(21):185-9.[1] (3)Melidou A, Gioula G, Exindari M, Chatzidimitriou D, Diza-Mataftsi E. Influenza A(H5N1): an overview of the current situation. Euro Surveill 2009;14(20). (4) Vicente D, Cilla G, Montes M, Mendiola J, Perez-Trallero E. Rapid spread of drug-resistant influenza A viruses in the Basque Country, northern Spain, 2000-1 to 2008-9. Euro Surveill 2009;14(20) (5) Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM. Managing and Reducing Uncertainty in an Emerging Influenza Pandemic. N Engl J Med 2009 May 28.
